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2020-01-05 22:54   来源:  www.miss9.cn   评论:0 点击:



Recently, some netizens asked that the domestic real estate bubble has not been broken, all parties are trying to prevent the hard landing of domestic housing prices, so the introduction of talent introduction, reconstruction of dangerous houses, encourage improved housing purchase and other policies. So, according to foreign real estate development experience, what are the signs that house prices will fall before?


For this reason, after studying the foreign real estate experience, we found that before the house price to fall have the following big signs: first, the real estate leverage is too high, the whole people add leverage. After the signing of the Plaza Agreement, a large amount of hot money poured into Japan to fire houses, and house prices went up, and a large number of Japanese people borrowed money to fire houses. Similarly, starting in 2015, China's universal leverage now accounts for 77 per cent of household income and 23 per cent of financial assets. 80% of the city's loan buyers.

第二,房地產市值高出他們全年GDP幾倍。拿當年日本房地產泡沫來説,東京的一個區的房地產總市值相當于美國房地產總市值,房地產泡沫高得有些離譜。同樣,國內房地產總市值達到450萬億人民幣(65萬億美元),相當于美國 日本 歐洲的房地產市場總和。如果國內房價還要繼續上漲,那中國房地產市值將與全球房產市值相媲美。

Second, the property market value is several times higher than their full-year GDP. Take the japanese real estate bubble, which was somewhat out of proportion to the total u.s. market capitalisation of a tokyo district. Similarly, the total domestic market value of real estate is 450 trillion yuan ($65 trillion), equivalent to the sum of the property market in Japan and Europe in the United States. If domestic property prices continue to rise, China's property market will be worth as much as global property.


Third, before house prices plunged, developers were usually rich and hostile because of a property bubble. Before Japan's property bubble burst, Japan's richest man was not a manufacturing giant, but a developer boss. Similarly, in the last two years, china's top five forbes were either e-commerce or house owners. Likewise, some small and medium-sized developers face a survival crisis, with more than 500 failings last year.


Fourth, because of high house prices, young people lose confidence in the future, do not marry, do not have children, do not work, even if there is a job is three days of fishing and two days of net drying, after a day count a day, that is, we often call a society without desire. This was the case before Japan's house prices plunged. Similarly, in today's Chinese society, because of the high housing prices, the birth rate has plummeted, and the enthusiasm of young people is far less than in the past.


Fifth, the property rental ratio, according to international practice, the normal property rental ratio of 5-7%. This means that you invest in property with an annual return of around 5%, while after the property bubble blows up, the return on investing in property rentals is only about 1-2%, meaning that house prices are too high to keep up with rising rents. The reason is simple: rising rents are linked to local residents, while rising house prices are linked to speculative demand plus leverage.


From the experience of foreign real estate development, the occurrence of the above five situations, means that the real estate bubble will be punctured, the signs of a sharp fall in house prices. And our country has a lot of similarities in many aspects. In fact, as long as the process of house price decline is controlled to avoid a big ups and downs in the short term, it is not terrible to see the adjustment of house prices in mainland China, and it is believed that in the future, with the efforts of all parties, China's real estate bubble is likely to achieve a soft landing over a period of several years.