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根據國外房產經驗,房價大跌前有哪些征兆
2020-01-05 22:54   来源:  www.miss9.cn   评论:0 点击:

根據國外房產經驗,房價大跌前有哪些征兆最近,有網友提問,國內房地產泡沫遲遲未破,各方都在想方設法防止

最近,有網友提問,國內房地產泡沫遲遲未破,各方都在想方設法防止國內房價硬著陸,于是就推出了人才引進、危房改造、鼓勵改善型購房等政策。那么,根據國外房地產發展經驗來看,房價要大跌之前都會有哪些征兆?

Recently, some netizens asked that the domestic real estate bubble has not been broken, all parties are trying to prevent the hard landing of domestic housing prices, so the introduction of talent introduction, reconstruction of dangerous houses, encourage improved housing purchase and other policies. So, according to foreign real estate development experience, what are the signs that house prices will fall before?

為此,我們研究了國外房地產經驗后,發現房價要大跌前都有以下幾大征兆:第一,房地產杠桿過高,全民加杠桿。當年日本在簽訂了廣場協議后,大量游資涌入日本炒房,房價隨之升高,大量日本民眾借錢炒房。同樣,在2015年開始,我國全民加杠桿,現在房產占居民家庭收入的77%,而金融資產占23%。城市中貸款購房者占到80%。

For this reason, after studying the foreign real estate experience, we found that before the house price to fall have the following big signs: first, the real estate leverage is too high, the whole people add leverage. After the signing of the Plaza Agreement, a large amount of hot money poured into Japan to fire houses, and house prices went up, and a large number of Japanese people borrowed money to fire houses. Similarly, starting in 2015, China's universal leverage now accounts for 77 per cent of household income and 23 per cent of financial assets. 80% of the city's loan buyers.

第二,房地產市值高出他們全年GDP幾倍。拿當年日本房地產泡沫來説,東京的一個區的房地產總市值相當于美國房地產總市值,房地產泡沫高得有些離譜。同樣,國內房地產總市值達到450萬億人民幣(65萬億美元),相當于美國 日本 歐洲的房地產市場總和。如果國內房價還要繼續上漲,那中國房地產市值將與全球房產市值相媲美。

Second, the property market value is several times higher than their full-year GDP. Take the japanese real estate bubble, which was somewhat out of proportion to the total u.s. market capitalisation of a tokyo district. Similarly, the total domestic market value of real estate is 450 trillion yuan ($65 trillion), equivalent to the sum of the property market in Japan and Europe in the United States. If domestic property prices continue to rise, China's property market will be worth as much as global property.

第三,房價大跌之前,由于房地產存在泡沫,通常開發商都富可敵國。當年日本房地產泡沫破裂之前,日本的首富不是制造業巨頭,而是開發商大老板。同樣,最近兩年,中國福布斯排行榜的前五位,不是電商,就是房企老板。同樣,也有一部分中小開發商面臨生存危機,去年一年就有500多家倒閉。

Third, before house prices plunged, developers were usually rich and hostile because of a property bubble. Before Japan's property bubble burst, Japan's richest man was not a manufacturing giant, but a developer boss. Similarly, in the last two years, china's top five forbes were either e-commerce or house owners. Likewise, some small and medium-sized developers face a survival crisis, with more than 500 failings last year.

第四,由于高房價,導致年輕人對未來失去信心,不結婚、不生子、不工作,即使有工作也是三天打魚兩天曬網,過一天算一天,也就是我們常説的無欲望社會。日本房價大跌之前就是這樣子。同樣,現在的中國社會,由于房價過高,人口出生率大跌,年輕人奮斗的積極性也遠不及過去。

Fourth, because of high house prices, young people lose confidence in the future, do not marry, do not have children, do not work, even if there is a job is three days of fishing and two days of net drying, after a day count a day, that is, we often call a society without desire. This was the case before Japan's house prices plunged. Similarly, in today's Chinese society, because of the high housing prices, the birth rate has plummeted, and the enthusiasm of young people is far less than in the past.

第五,房產租售比,按照國際慣例,正常的房產租售比在5%-7%。這意味著,你投資房產每年的投資回報率在5%左右,而在房地產泡沫吹起之后,投資房產出租的回報率只有1-2%左右,這意味著,房價過高,租金上漲跟不上房價上漲。原因很簡單,租金上漲是與當地居民掛鉤,而房價上漲是與則是投機性需求加杠桿所致。

Fifth, the property rental ratio, according to international practice, the normal property rental ratio of 5-7%. This means that you invest in property with an annual return of around 5%, while after the property bubble blows up, the return on investing in property rentals is only about 1-2%, meaning that house prices are too high to keep up with rising rents. The reason is simple: rising rents are linked to local residents, while rising house prices are linked to speculative demand plus leverage.

以國外的房地產發展經驗來看,出現以上五種情況,意味著房地產泡沫要被刺破,房價要大跌的征兆。而我國在很多方面有很大相似之處。實際上,只要控制住房價下跌進程,避免房價在短期內大起大落,中國內地房價出現調整下跌并不可怕,相信未來在各方的努力之下,中國房地產泡沫很可能,通過幾年的時間逐步實現軟著陸。

From the experience of foreign real estate development, the occurrence of the above five situations, means that the real estate bubble will be punctured, the signs of a sharp fall in house prices. And our country has a lot of similarities in many aspects. In fact, as long as the process of house price decline is controlled to avoid a big ups and downs in the short term, it is not terrible to see the adjustment of house prices in mainland China, and it is believed that in the future, with the efforts of all parties, China's real estate bubble is likely to achieve a soft landing over a period of several years.


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